Reducing losses in food production in Brazil: its impacts on the economy, land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions

Abstract

The reduction of food losses is an important measure to ensure food security, as it affects food availability, the environment and economic development. To this end, it is necessary to reduce waste from production to final consumption. This paper analyzes the economic impacts in Brazil from reducing food losses at the production stage between 2021 and 2030. In addition, it assesses the effects of policies on land allocation and its consequences in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. A computable general-equilibrium model was used to estimate the consequences arising from the reduction of losses on the different sectors of the economy as a result of the application of shocks of productivity gains to the production of some of the main crops in Brazil. The results show that reduction of waste is feasible and beneficial for the Brazilian economy, as it promotes regional and national economic growth, which leads to an increase in consumption by households and the government, and to investments and production levels. One of the main results identified was the Borlaug effect, since different agricultural activities grew in volume by increasing productivity on current cropland, thereby avoiding the conversion of large areas of native vegetation into arable land. Furthermore, the results may offer a new perspective on this topic to countries with economies similar to Brazil's, particular since only a few studies use this approach exist.